BetMGM opened the Dallas Mavericks' win total at 34.5. Last season they won 26. The whole preview comes down to whether nine more wins is easy or ambitious.
It is worth arguing both sides.
The case for the over
Kyrie Irving is back. He missed all of last season after his March 2025 ACL tear and has been cleared without restrictions. A 26-win team adding a player of his caliber is the single biggest reason to expect a jump.
Cooper Flagg is a year older. His rookie line of 21.0 points, 6.7 rebounds and 4.5 assists won him Rookie of the Year. Second-year leaps from players who start at that level tend to be real, and he turns 20 in December.
The roster finally fits the coach. Dusty May wants to run, and Dallas now has a stable of athletic forwards to do it, from Risacher and Aldama to Marshall, Washington and Flagg himself.
There is no reason to lose. Dallas' 2027 first-round pick belongs to Charlotte, which removes any draft incentive to sink.
The case for the under
The defense was a disaster. Dallas allowed 119.6 points a game and was outscored by 5.5 points a night. Nothing about the roster screams elite defense, and the one proven rim protector, Dereck Lively II, has not been cleared after his second foot surgery in 14 months.
It's a first-year NBA coach. May has never coached a day in the league. Rotations, back-to-backs and 82-game pacing are new to him.
Irving is 34. The front office still has to decide how he handles back-to-backs, and a guard coming off an ACL at that age carries risk every week.
The West does not wait. Oklahoma City swept Phoenix in the first round last spring, and the conference's middle tier is crowded with teams already built to win.
